Understanding Saudi-Syria rapprochement

Saudi Arabia’s plans to reopen diplomatic ties with Syria, 11 years after cutting off relations with Bashar al-Assad’s regime, have sparked significant interest and analysis.  Saudi-Syria rapprochement is a pragmatic approach in the context of changing Arab landscape, recognizing the reality of Assad’s survival and seeking to safeguard regional stability from outside influence. 

The Changing Arab Landscape

Even before the devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria in February 2023, there has been a trend among Arab states to bring Syria back into the region’s diplomatic fold. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which armed the Free Syrian Army and called for Assad’s ouster in the early stages of the Syrian crisis, reopened its embassy in Damascus in late 2018. Since then, Abu Dhabi has been driving Arab efforts to accept the reality of Assad’s survival. Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Oman, and Jordan have also been on a similar page as the UAE in terms of normalizing relations with Damascus. However, Saudi Arabia had, until recently, held out against rapprochement with Syria.

Recognizing the Reality of Assad’s Survival

At this point, Riyadh acknowledges that the efforts to overthrow Assad have failed. The weaknesses of the Syrian state and the dire economic conditions in the country have given Saudi Arabia a reason to believe that it can leverage its resources to at least partly lure Damascus away from its long-standing alliance with Tehran. This shift in Saudi Arabia’s stance towards Syria reflects pragmatism and a desire to safeguard regional stability as Riyadh pursues its ambitious economic agenda to reduce its reliance on hydrocarbon exports.

The Russian Factor

When assessing Saudi Arabia’s calculus towards Assad, the role of Russia is significant. Since Moscow introduced its air power to support Assad in 2015, one of the Kremlin’s goals has been to urge Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members to come to terms with the reality of Assad’s regime. Recent talks to normalize Saudi-Syrian ties have been held in Moscow and are expected to lead to a resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries after the fasting month of Ramadan. Such a deal would mark a significant foreign policy win for Russia, coming shortly after China’s efforts to broker a similar agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, building on prior efforts by Iraq and Oman.

Saudi Arabia’s Quest for Independence from the US

Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, has expressed a desire to make Saudi Arabia more independent from the United States. Strengthening ties with adversaries of the US, such as Russia and China, serves this purpose. In March 2023, the Saudi cabinet approved a decision for the Kingdom to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, seen as a further nod to Beijing. Saudi-Syria rapprochement would also bring Riyadh closer to Moscow. As the two leaders of OPEC+, Saudi Arabia and Russia already cooperate in managing global oil supplies, and the future of this cartel is of significant importance to the Kingdom’s economic health.

Implications for US-Saudi Relations

Saudi-Syria rapprochement also highlights the challenges the Biden administration faces in its efforts to convince its Arab allies and partners not to rehabilitate the Assad regime. President Joe Biden’s goal during his visit to Saudi Arabia last year was to discourage the Kingdom from moving closer to Russia and China. However, the recent Russian-mediated Saudi-Syria reconciliation, following the Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement, underscores the extent to which Moscow and Beijing have already positioned themselves between Washington and Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia ‘s Pragmatic Approach to Regional Dynamics

As Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its economy and reduce its reliance on hydrocarbon exports, the Kingdom’s foreign policy decisions are increasingly driven by pragmatic considerations. The reopening of diplomatic ties with Syria after 11 years of estrangement is a reflection of this pragmatic approach, as Riyadh recognizes the reality of Assad’s survival and the changing dynamics in the Middle East.

Summary

Saudi Arabia’s decision to reopen diplomatic ties with Syria reflects a pragmatic approach to regional dynamics, recognizing the changing landscape in the Middle East, the role of Russia, and the Kingdom’s pursuit of independence from the US.

As Riyadh seeks to safeguard its interests, both economic and strategic, it is willing to adapt its foreign policy decisions and engage with regional actors that may not align with the interests of its traditional allies. The implications of this rapprochement for US-Saudi relations and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East will likely continue to evolve as regional dynamics continue to shift.