As Turkey faces one of the deadliest earthquakes in recent history just before the May 2023 election, President Erdogan is under immense pressure to handle the earthquake effectively. This is reminiscent of how he rose to power two decades ago by capitalizing on the previous government’s inability to manage the 1999 earthquake. The question now is whether he can turn the current disaster into a success story and win the election, or if the wave of criticism he faces will be too much to overcome.
How Erdoğan Profited from the 1999 earthquake
During his public appearances, President Erdoğan now recalls the devastating 1939 earthquake that claimed 33,000 lives and destroyed over 100,000 homes. It’s unclear whether he is intentionally trying to make people forget about the more recent past or using it as a strategy to divert attention from his past exploitation of the 1999 İzmit earthquake.
According to historian and former New York Times journalist Stephen Kinzer’s 2001 study of İzmit for the Middle East Quarterly, the 1999 earthquake presented Erdoğan with an opportunity to advance his political career when the then-Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit was reportedly in a state of shock.
Rather than visiting the devastated areas, the government continued to assert that everything was under control and there was no cause for public concern. According to Kinzer, the army had the potential to play a vital role in rescue operations, but the commanders failed to act. Consequently, there were no rescue missions, aid agencies, or government officials actively working to save lives.
Compounding the issue, the government’s earthquake fund was found to be empty, and Ecevit provided the excuse that the roads were too damaged and congested with rubble to send rescue teams. As a result of the delay in rescue operations and government neglect, the earthquake claimed a high death toll, with over 17,000 people losing their lives and millions losing their homes.
Out of this chaos, Erdoğan emerged victorious in the 2002 election by capitalizing on Ecevit’s failure to establish a stable economy and adequately protect Turkish citizens during the 1999 İzmit earthquake. The Nationalist Action Party, Democratic Left Party, and Motherland Party, which had previously dominated Turkish politics in the 1990s, were unable to secure the minimum 10 percent vote threshold, while Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party won in a landslide victory.
What did Erdogan do to protect from future earthquakes?
Erdoğan oversaw a construction boom in 2010 to boost Turkey’s economy and development projects, but in doing so, he lost sight of his original goals of protecting the affected areas from future earthquakes.
Although these projects were initially successful, corruption and bribery in the construction sector increased due to a monopoly on construction work given to 10 companies, as supported by President Erdoğan. World Bank data shows that three or four of these companies have received the highest number of public tenders in the world. Despite strong building codes and regulations on paper, construction companies regularly bribe officials and inspectors to overlook construction faults for greater profits. The aftermath of the earthquake reflects this reality.
Read also : CAN ERDOGAN LOSE THE 2023 ELECTION?
Disaster response and the next election
Erdoğan learned a significant lesson from the 1999 earthquake experience and has made it clear that he will not repeat Ecevit’s mistakes. He understands the importance of being visible and taking center stage, so he has been visiting affected areas, speaking with locals, and encouraging government officials to aid in rescue efforts.
While initially denying any failure on the part of the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), he has since acknowledged that some issues caused delays in the rescue process. He has already allocated $5.3 billion for the initial response.
However, experts are saying that Turkey is situated above one of the world’s most dangerous geological faults, which Erdogan is well aware of. However, for the past 20 years, he has taken no steps to prepare the country for an inevitable earthquake.
Another significant challenge for Erdogan is regaining the trust of the people in the 10 provinces devastated by the earthquakes, as he and his parliamentary alliance won overwhelmingly in those regions during the 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections.
People are now asking where the billions of dollars collected from the earthquake tax imposed on building owners after the Izmit earthquake went. In response, Erdoğan claimed that the money was spent appropriately, but he refused to provide further details. Critics are warning that in the next election, the public will demand answers and hold Erdoğan accountable, possibly leading to a repeat of history.
