By 2025, the global arms trade resembled a sprawling web of strategic alliances, defence deals, and shifting priorities. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report offers a rare glimpse into this complex network.
The Big Picture
Ten countries—led by the United States, France, and Russia—accounted for the vast majority of the world’s arms exports. But it’s the flow of weapons, not just the volume, that reveals the political and strategic contours of modern geopolitics.
Source: SIPRI, March 2025
United States: The Global Arsenal
At the heart of this global web lies the United States, which in the 2020–24 period accounted for an astonishing 43 per cent of global arms exports. It is at the top of the list of the 10 largest arms exporters in the world. This is more than the next eight largest exporters combined. American weapons reached 107 countries, a sign not only of military superiority but also of the country’s deep entrenchment in defence partnerships across every continent. While Saudi Arabia remained the largest single recipient of US arms (12 per cent), the big story of this period was Ukraine, which received 9.3 per cent of all US exports—nearly all of it as military aid following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Japan, too, saw a significant uptick, receiving 8.8 per cent, reflecting rising concerns about China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
France: A Rising Arms Power
France emerged as the second-largest arms exporter, surpassing Russia for the first time in recent history. With a 9.6 per cent share of global exports, France demonstrated its ability to position itself as a reliable supplier outside the US-Russia binary. Much of its export strength came from strategic partnerships in Asia and the Middle East. India alone received 28 per cent of French arms, a relationship cemented by deliveries of Rafale combat aircraft and other high-value military hardware. Qatar (9.7 per cent) and Greece (8.3 per cent) followed closely, underlining France’s growing military-industrial footprint across multiple regions. What sets France apart is its ability to navigate both NATO alignments and independent bilateral agreements, making it a flexible and increasingly popular partner for states seeking to diversify their suppliers.
Russia: Decline Amid Sanctions and War
Russia, meanwhile, experienced a dramatic fall in its arms exports, dropping by 64 per cent from the previous five-year period. The decline began before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with India and China—its two largest clients—significantly reducing their imports from Moscow. The war only accelerated this trend, as Russia diverted production to domestic needs and faced mounting international sanctions. Yet, despite the fall, Russia retained a 7.8 per cent share of the market and remained the top supplier for India (38 per cent), China (17 per cent), and Kazakhstan (11 per cent). The long-term outlook for Russian exports, however, remains uncertain given its limited pending orders and shrinking global appeal.
China and Regional Influence
China accounted for 5.9 per cent of global arms exports, a slight decline from the previous period. While it has ambitions to become a top-tier supplier, many large arms-importing nations remain reluctant to procure Chinese weapons due to political tensions and concerns over technology quality and interoperability. Still, China maintained a stronghold in Pakistan, which received a staggering 63 per cent of Chinese exports. This reinforces a deep-rooted strategic alliance that continues to define military dynamics in South Asia. China’s other clients, like Serbia and Thailand, indicate its reach into regions aligned or sympathetic to its foreign policy.
Germany, Italy, and Other Key Players
Germany, Italy, and Spain maintained steady flows, with Germany notably supplying both Ukraine and Egypt. Italy’s exports more than doubled, while South Korea expanded into European markets, supplying 46% of Poland’s arms.
Other key players included the United Kingdom (3.6 per cent) and Israel (3.1 per cent). Each of these countries had unique export profiles. The UK supplied Qatar, the USA, and Ukraine, maintaining its traditional ties with the Gulf and NATO. Israel, despite being a significant arms importer itself, exported to India, the USA, and the Philippines, reflecting its strength in advanced technologies like drones and air defence.
Conclusion: Major Arms Trade Relationships
What this global web reveals is not just who buys and who sells, but how arms exports are deployed as tools of influence. Arms supply chains mirror strategic trust and mutual interests. The US–Ukraine and France–India corridors reflect deeper alignments that extend beyond military needs to include diplomatic and economic cooperation. Meanwhile, declining suppliers like Russia illustrate the vulnerabilities of a militarised economy in times of war and isolation.
As global conflicts shift and new powers rise, the arms trade will continue to be a barometer of geopolitical influence. The next five years will show whether new players can challenge the traditional giants—and whether arms will remain the primary currency of strategic partnership in an increasingly fragmented world.
