This article projects the top three fastest-growing economies in 2023. Get ready for a surprise – the list may shock you!
The forecast data is provided by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Guyana
Expected growth: 30 %
Guyana is expected to be the fastest-growing economy in the coming years due to its increasing oil production.
Oil production in the country rose from almost nothing in 2019 to over 100,000 barrels per day in 2021, and is expected to increase to more than 400,000 barrels per day by 2024 as new projects come online.
The government’s local content policy, which favors Guyanese individuals and companies in the energy sector, is also expected to support the non-oil economy.
However, there are risks to this outlook, including the potential for cronyism and a weakening of institutions in the expanding energy sector, as well as ethnic tensions and protests.
The World Bank also warns that Guyana’s increasing reliance on the extractive sector raises its vulnerability to oil-related shocks and may affect private sector competitiveness and erode institutions.
Additionally, the environmental consequences of oil production must be carefully considered.
Libya
Expected growth: 15%
Libya’s economy is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years due to higher energy output and elevated crude oil prices.
However, this growth is dependent on an improvement in the political situation in the country.
Currently, Libya is split between rival governments and clashes between their supporters have disrupted oil production.
If elections are held and the country is able to unite under a single government, it could boost oil output and investment, leading to economic growth.
However, if the current standoff between rival governments continues, it could result in increased violent conflict and economic disruption.
The main driver of economic growth in Libya will be the oil sector, which will also support government consumption and investment and a recovery in private consumption.
Non-oil sector growth is expected to be subdued in the first half of the forecast period due to sporadic conflict and poor provision of services, but it is expected to improve gradually if fighting ceases and a more unified and effective elected government takes power.
Venezuela
Expected growth: 9.3%
The U.S. and Europeans are considering Venezuela as a potential source of energy due to ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the potential for conflict between China and Taiwan, and the political instability in the Middle East.
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has granted Chevron Corporation permission to restart limited natural resource extraction operations in Venezuela through the issuance of Venezuela General License (GL) 41 in November, 2022.
It is anticipated that Eni and Repsol, along with potentially other multinational companies, will receive authorization to begin extracting and exporting oil in Venezuela in the coming year, similar to the authorization granted to Chevron Corporation.
It is likely that the national government will reach its goal of producing 1 million barrels of oil per day by the end of 2023, which would significantly increase the nation’s oil export revenues.
In addition to oil exports, the country can also expect to see an increase in revenue from remittances, currently estimated at $4.2 billion, as well as exports of gold and other minerals and non-traditional items.
These sources of income are expected to bring in approximately $20 billion by 2023, significantly more than the estimated $15 billion expected by the end of 2022.
